Environmental circumstances surrounding bushfire fatalities in Australia 1901–2011

This paper describes the development and analysis of a dataset covering bushfire related life loss in Australia over the past 110 years (1901–2011). Over this time period 260 bushfires have been associated with a total of 825 known civilian and firefighter fatalities. This database was developed to provide an evidence base from which an Australian national fire danger rating system can be developed and has benefits in formalising our understanding of community exposure to bushfire. The database includes detail of the spatial, temporal and localised context in which the fatalities occurred. This paper presents the analysis of 674 civilian fatalities. The analysis has focused on characterising the relationship between fatal exposure location, weather conditions (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and drought indices), proximity to fuel, activities and decision making leading up to the death.The analysis demonstrates that civilian fatalities were dominated by several iconic bushfires that have occurred under very severe weather conditions. The fatalities from Australia's 10 worst bushfire days accounted for 64% of all civilian fatalities. Over 50% of all fatalities occurred on days where the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeded 100 (the current threshold for declaring a day as ‘catastrophic’) proximal to the fatality.The dominant location category was open air representing 58% of all fatalities followed by 28% in structures, and 8% in vehicles (6% are unknown). For bushfires occurring under weather conditions exceeding an FFDI value of 100, fatalities within structures represented over 60% of all fatalities. These were associated with people dying while attempting to shelter mainly in their place of residence. Of the fatalities that occurred inside a structure in a location that was specifically known, 41% occurred in rooms with reduced visibility to the outside conditions. Over 78% of all fatalities occurred within 30 m of the forest.     

The Impact-Likelihood Matrix: A policy tool for behaviour prioritisation

The proliferation of applied behaviour change science over the past decade has provided new ways of thinking about policy making. Policy makers now have a range of frameworks and methods to assist in formulating change for social and environmental benefits. However, the development of strategies for the identification and prioritisation of target behaviours has been less forthcoming. This paper outlines a tool to assist in behaviour selection. Behaviours are assessed for their potential impact on addressing a specific issue, the likelihood of adoption by the target audience and existing participation levels within the target audience. Each of these characteristics is scored, allowing behaviours to be mapped onto a meaningful, visual, matrix for prioritisation. Additional data on behaviour type and the key perceived barriers to participation in each behaviour are layered onto the matrix to provide direction for intervention design. An application of the prioritisation matrix is presented within an environmental context through a case study of water demand management behaviours for domestic consumers in Australia. The prioritisation matrix could provide a decision-making tool for policy makers to assist in the selection of target behaviours to address complex issues.     

The role of perceived effectiveness of policy measures in predicting recycling behaviour in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is a compact and ‘land-hungry’ city where recycling has become an important measure for treating waste and reducing the demand on the limited landfills. The objectives of this paper are to extend the model of recycling attitude and behaviour to explain the relationship between perceived policy effectiveness and recycling behaviour. Previous studies on recycling attitude and behaviour had widely adopted the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and the norm activation model (NAM), and drawn policy implications from them. Nevertheless, little research has been conducted to investigate the role of perceived effectiveness of policy measures in predicting recycling behaviour. To address this, a model that integrates the TPB and NAM was proposed in this study, and a street survey was conducted to investigate the case. The results illustrate that recycling intention is influenced by subjective norms, perceived behavioural control, moral norms, and awareness of consequences, as well as a newly proposed construct, namely perceived policy effectiveness. The study proved self-reported recycling behaviour (direct behaviour) and support for policy measures (indirect behaviour) are influenced by recycling intention. All in all the Government should provide more recycling bins, guidelines on recycling activities, and should accent what it has been doing to facilitate and encourage recycling.     

Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part II: Hybrid life cycle assessment of Swiss glass-packaging disposal

In policy support of municipal solid waste (MSW) management, life cycle assessment (LCA) can serve to compare the environmental or economic impacts of two or more options for waste processing. The scope of waste management LCAs generally focuses less attention on future developments, e.g., where will recycling take place, and more on the environmental performance of prototypes, e.g., the incineration of all waste compared to recycling. To provide more robust support for Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal, scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging are assessed from a life cycle perspective. The scenarios consist in schemes for the disposal of the total amount of Swiss waste glass-packaging, i.e., different combinations of recycling and downcycling in Switzerland or abroad developed in Part I, Meylan et al. (2013). In this article (Part II), the disposal schemes are assessed with respect to eco-efficiency, an indicator that combines total environmental impacts and gross value added in Switzerland. Results show that no policy alternative guarantees environmental impact reductions and gross value added gains under all developments of exogenous constraints. Downcycling to foam glass in Switzerland is not only an environmentally sound disposal option, but it also buffers gross value added losses in case domestic recycling (and thus glass-packaging production in Switzerland) ceases in the future. The substitution of products based on raw materials other than Swiss cullet is the main responsible for change in environmental and economic impacts. Hence, an eco-efficiency maximizing policy should consider the products of disposal schemes. The combination of scenario analysis and eco-efficiency assessment as presented in this paper can be applied to other contexts (i.e., countries, waste fractions).     

System dynamics model for analyzing effects of eco-design policy on packaging waste management system

EU's long-term objective is to become a recycling and resource effective society, where waste is utilized as a resource and waste generation is prevented. A system dynamics model was developed to analyze the policy mechanisms that promote packaging material efficiency in products through increased recycling rates. The model includes economic incentives such as packaging and landfill taxes combined with market mechanisms, behavioral aspects and ecological considerations in terms of material efficiency (the packaging material per product unit, recycled fraction in products). The paper presents the results of application of various policy instruments for increasing packaging material efficiency and recovery rate and reducing landfilled fraction. The results show that a packaging tax is an effective policy instrument for increasing the material efficiency. It ensures the decrease of the total consumption of materials and subsequent waste generation. The tax helps to counteract a rebound effect, which, as identified by the analysis, can be caused by reduced material costs due to eco-design. The model is applied to the case of Latvia. Yet, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to waste management systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze policy mechanisms in other countries.     

Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation

The ecological literature reveals considerable confusion about the meaning of validation in the context of simulation models. The confusion arises as much from semantic and philosophical considerations as from the selection of validation procedures. Validation is not a procedure for testing scientific theory or for certifying the ‘truth’ of current scientific understanding, nor is it a required activity of every modelling project. Validation means that a model is acceptable for its intended use because it meets specified performance requirements.Before validation is undertaken, (1) the purpose of the model, (2) the performance criteria, and (3) the model context must be specified. The validation process can be decomposed into several components: (1) operation, (2) theory, and (3) data. Important concepts needed to understand the model evaluation process are verification, calibration, validation, credibility, and qualification. These terms are defined in a limited technical sense applicable to the evaluation of simulation models, and not as general philosophical concepts. Different tests and standards are applied to the operational, theoretical, and data components. The operational and data components can be validated; the theoretical component cannot.The most common problem with ecological and environmental models is failure to state what the validation criteria are. Criteria must be explicitly stated because there are no universal standards for selecting what test procedures or criteria to use for validation. A test based on comparison of simulated versus observed data is generally included whenever possible. Because the objective and subjective components of validation are not mutually exclusive, disagreements over the meaning of validation can only be resolved by establishing a convention.     

The risk assessment–policy gap: An example from the UK contaminated land regime

Risk-based regulation assumes that risk assessment can evaluate risks against policy objectives. However, policy goals are often ambiguous and require risk assessors to interpret them for use in risk assessment. This risk assessment-policy gap stems partly from normative and imprecise policy language but is rooted more fundamentally in society's uncertain expectations for the environment. Until this uncertainty is resolved, the democratic and regulatory effectiveness of risk regulation will be undermined by ad hoc policy decisions abdicated to risk assessors.     

Review of present European environmental policies and legislation involving cultural heritage

Cultural heritage is being addressed by a number of charters and conventions and it is clear that its consideration within decision-making processes is progressively becoming a real challenge, both for developers and public authorities. Against this background, this paper reviews the environmental assessment framework developed by the European Community, as this should increasingly influence decision making about cultural heritage in an urban setting. The legislative framework for access to environmental information is also reviewed because of its relevance to the decision-making process.The Directives on Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment both require a consideration of cultural heritage in decision making. This requirement can go some way to addressing the paradox in the European Community's position whereby the community wishes to conserve and enhance its own cultural identity whilst, at the same time, cultural heritage is usually defined at a local level. The present paper suggests that, given their flexibility, the two European Community directives on environmental assessment constitute a promising opportunity to address this seeming paradox, but that there is a significant gap between legal obligations and the methodological tools to meet them.     

Wastewater reclamation and reuse in China: Opportunities and challenges

The growing water stress both in terms of water scarcity and quality deterioration promotes the development of reclaimed water as a new water resource use. This paper reviewed wastewater reuse practices in China, and the opportunities and challenges of expanding reclaimed water use were analyzed. Rapid urbanization with the increasing of water demand and wastewater discharge provides an opportunity for wastewater reuse. The vast amount of wastewater discharge and low reclaimed water production mean that wastewater reuse still has a great potential in China. Many environmental and economic benefits and successful reclamation technologies also provide opportunities for wastewater reuse. In addition, the overall strategy in China is also encouraging for wastewater reuse. In the beginning stage of wastewater reclamation and reuse, there are many significant challenges to expand wastewater reuse in China including slow pace in adopting urban wastewater reuse programs, the establishment of integrated water resources management framework and guidelines for wastewater reuse programs, incoherent water quality requirements, the limited commercial development of reclaimed water and the strengthening of public awareness and cooperation among stakeholders.     

战略环境评价在中国的发展及方法学探讨

本文在回顾和评述战略评价（SEA）的发展状况的基础上，从概念和实践的角度，对SEA方法学作了初步探讨，并提出SEA方法学研究的一般思路。